Here is my compiled list of the presidential elections of the last 60 years and the reaction of the stock market (as measured by the S&P 500 index) in the following four months:
| President (Term) | First Four Months |
|---|
| Eisenhower (1) | 4.8% |
| Eisenhower (2) | -7.1% |
| Kennedy | 15.1% |
| Johnson | 2.4% |
| Nixon (1) | -3.3% |
| Nixon (2) | 0.4% |
| Carter | -2.6% |
| Reagan (1) | 1.4% |
| Reagan (2) | 6.0% |
| Bush, GHW | 6.9% |
| Clinton (1) | 7.0% |
| Clinton (2) | 12.3% |
| Bush, GW (1) | -11.9% |
| Bush, GW (2) | 7.0% |
| Obama | -29.1%1 |
(1) NOTE: In yesterday’s post, I wrote that the return of the market since Obama was elected was -32.1%. That reflected yesterday’s close on March 5. However, that is four months and one day (election day was November 4 and is the day of comparison, since it is still not known at the market close that day who will be elected). Here that extra day is removed to round it to four months exactly.
How about the first six weeks after inauguration?
| President (Term) | First Six Weeks |
|---|
| Eisenhower (1) | -0.3% |
| Eisenhower (2) | -2.0% |
| Kennedy | 6.8% |
| Johnson | 0.9% |
| Nixon (1) | -3.8% |
| Nixon (2) | -5.5% |
| Carter | -3.3% |
| Reagan (1) | -1.8% |
| Reagan (2) | 7.0% |
| Bush, GHW | 1.1% |
| Clinton (1) | 2.9% |
| Clinton (2) | 1.9% |
| Bush, GW (1) | -8.1% |
| Bush, GW (2) | -2.1% |
| Obama | -17.6% |
There is nothing scientific about this. There are many factors that may arise that affect stock prices which are beyond the control of the presidency. But this does give some indication that absent these factors our newly elected president’s policies are not viewed favorably by people or institutions who would invest in the American economy.
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03/06/09 07:12:15 pm, by Tony Quain 
